- Host: Aaron Alaimo (Email - Aaron.firstname.lastname@example.org)
- Organisation: Veitchlister Consulting
- Session: 2
- Location: Portico Room
Why modelling Is a black box?
Computation in a complex arena and the
Use of transport models to justify planning
In many respects it's not the model itself that might prove erroneous, it's the decisions in the backend.
How our industry can assist a thinking process through planning
Opprotunities for error in validating the model, where the model is built on hhts primarily, mathematical architectural errors, smaller sample sizes, ambiguity in forecasting, are the parameters changing with time; these constitute error/dirty deeds
Transport modelling as a profession is being severely hurt
Why isn't transparency encouraged within modelling
Since it's a technical area, transparency cannot be compromised with by the modellers. cal area, transparency cannot be compromised with by the modellers. Engineers on the other hand aren't careful at telling the technical stories to the society.
Government downsize the ability of modelling and hand it over to consulting labs. Modelling gets small proportion of the actual price that's allocated to the planning process.
Biggest challenge with modelling is the illusion of accuracy. Precision isn't enough. High range of uncertainty
Strategic decision-making process is done my ministries and councils owing to uncertainties
No process within ministries to sell to the society that there's uncertainty with an answer. That's where it ends up with a binary solution.
Local governments don't have exposure to transport modelling tools. Decisions are normally made out of an assessment of a set of alternatives. Many politicians get away with only making choices are not analysing what goes into those alternatives.
Bringingmodels closer to realitymight be a safer solution. Black boxes are a necessary evil; but it's harder to fixate on a single answer.
Inability of modellers to communicate; actual tools are reasonably comfortable and implicit if used correctly. Most models are convenient to work with for about 5 years. The changes in land use comes into picture subsequently.
Challenge is to know whether the society wants to see he modellers as black boxes or mor transparent. Educating politicians is another challenge lest the ministry ignores the societal needs based on what's necessary